The Chinese Equity Bubble: Ready to Burst

Details The Chinese Equity Bubble: Ready to Burst The Chinese Equity Bubble: Ready to Burst

2009-07-10

arxiv.org/abs/0907.1827v1

Economy

Quantitative Finance

Statistical Finance

3 pages, 1 figure

Scientific paper

Amid the current financial crisis, there has been one equity index beating
all others: the Shanghai Composite. Our analysis of this main Chinese equity
index shows clear signatures of a bubble build up and we go on to predict its
most likely crash date: July 17-27, 2009 (20%/80% quantile confidence
interval).

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