The background seismicity rate of the Greek territory, considered as a unified seismogenic area, for the period 1964 - 2010. Is Greece in course for a large seismic event?

Details The background seismicity rate of the Greek territory, considered as a unified seismogenic area, for the period 1964 - 2010. Is Greece in course for a large seismic event? The background seismicity rate of the Greek territory, considered as a unified seismogenic area, for the period 1964 - 2010. Is Greece in course for a large seismic event?

2010-12-27

arxiv.org/abs/1012.5635v1

Physics

Geophysics

15 pages, 32 figures, URL: http://www.earthquakeprediction.gr

Scientific paper

The analysis of the earthquakes catalog of Greece for the period 1964 to 2010 indicates a continuously increasing no. of seismic events. A detailed determination of the cumulative seismic energy release, for specific earthquake magnitudes, revealed that for magnitudes up to Ms = 5.0R the Greek territory, considered as a unified seismogenic area, is at a state of accelerating deformation for almost the last 10 years. The background seismicity rate, considering constant cumulative seismic energy release for the entire study period, corresponds to a magnitude of Ms = 5.5R, while for earthquakes of larger magnitudes the Greek seismogenic area behaves irregularly. The results are compared to the different phases (Mjachkin et al, 1975) a seismogenic area undergoes before a large seismic event. From this comparison it is concluded that the Greek territory is probably in the course for a large seismic event in the years to come.

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