The Assessment and Calibration of Ensemble Seasonal Forecasts of Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperature and the Predictability of Uncertainty

Details The Assessment and Calibration of Ensemble Seasonal Forecasts of Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperature and the Predictability of Uncertainty The Assessment and Calibration of Ensemble Seasonal Forecasts of Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperature and the Predictability of Uncertainty

2003-08-16

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0308065v1

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Submitted to ASL

Scientific paper

We evaluate the performance of two 44 year ensemble seasonal hindcast time
series for the Nino3 index produced as part of the DEMETER project. We show
that the ensemble mean carries useful information out to six months. The
ensemble spread, however, only carries useful information out to four months in
one of the models, and two months in the other.

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