Testing the Empirical CME Arrival Model Using Earth Directed Events

Details Testing the Empirical CME Arrival Model Using Earth Directed Events Testing the Empirical CME Arrival Model Using Earth Directed Events

May 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001agusm..sh61a05l&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2001, abstract #SH61A-05

Physics

2111 Ejecta, Driver Gases, And Magnetic Clouds, 7513 Coronal Mass Ejections, 7531 Prominence Eruptions

Scientific paper

An empirical model to predict the arrival of coronal mass ejections at 1 AU was developed recently (Gopalswamy et al. 2000), based on SOHO and Wind observations. The model was further improved by correcting for the intrinsic projection effects on CME initial speed. This correction was performed using archival data from Helios-1, Pioneer Venus Orbiter and P78-1 (Solwind) spacecraft which were in quadrature so that the projection effects were minimal. In this work we use the corrected CME arrival model to predict the travel time of a large set of Earth directed halo CMEs observed by SOHO/LASCO from January 1997 to December 2000. We search for interplanetary signatures around the predicted arrival times. In particular, one of the most commonly observed characteristics of interplanetary CMEs (ICME) is their low temperature with respect to the ambient (fast and slow) solar wind. We search for low temperature regions from in situ data obtained by Wind, ACE, and IMP8 spacecraft, as a proxy to the ICMEs. Finally, we compare the predicted CME arrival times with the detected ICME times and perform a statistical analysis of the errors in the predicted time.

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