Testing long-term earthquake forecasts: likelihood methods and error diagrams

Details Testing long-term earthquake forecasts: likelihood methods and error diagrams Testing long-term earthquake forecasts: likelihood methods and error diagrams

2008-06-17

arxiv.org/abs/0806.2885v1

Geophys. J. Int., 177(2), 532-542, 2009

Physics

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability

31 pages text, 3 tables, 10 figures

Scientific paper

10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.04064.x

We propose a new method to test the effectiveness of a spatial point process forecast based on a log-likelihood score for predicted point density and the information gain for events that actually occurred in the test period. The method largely avoids simulation use and allows us to calculate the information score for each event or set of events as well as the standard error of each forecast. As the number of predicted events increases, the score distribution approaches the Gaussian law. The degree of its similarity to the Gaussian distribution can be measured by the computed coefficients of skewness and kurtosis. To display the forecasted point density and the point events, we use an event concentration diagram or a variant of the Error Diagram (ED). We demonstrate the application of the method by using our long-term forecast of seismicity in two western Pacific regions. We compare the ED for these regions with simplified diagrams based on two-segment approximations. Since the earthquakes in these regions are concentrated in narrow subduction belts, using the forecast density as a template or baseline for the ED is a more convenient display technique. We also show, using simulated event occurrence, that some proposed criteria for measuring forecast effectiveness at EDs would be strongly biased for a small event number.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Testing long-term earthquake forecasts: likelihood methods and error diagrams does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Testing long-term earthquake forecasts: likelihood methods and error diagrams, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Testing long-term earthquake forecasts: likelihood methods and error diagrams will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-271904