Surface flux modelling using ARIMA technique in humid subtropical monsoon area

Details Surface flux modelling using ARIMA technique in humid subtropical monsoon area Surface flux modelling using ARIMA technique in humid subtropical monsoon area

Aug 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009jastp..71.1293k&link_type=abstract

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 71, Issue 12, p. 1293-1298.

Physics

Statistical Model, Sensible Heat Fluxes, Profile Method, Arima

Scientific paper

In this paper, we attempt to fit sensible heat fluxes obtained by the profile method between 1-2 and 1-4 m height into the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) family. In both the profiles, fluxes are found to fit into the first-order autoregression [AR (1)] model, which is the continuous analog of the first-order Markov chain. The ARIMA (1, 0, 0) model was able to simulate the heat flux value for 1 h in advance for both the profiles (1-2 and 1-4 m height) generating a prediction error of 18.28% and 4.95%, respectively.

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