Stratospheric and mesospheric cooling trend estimates from u.s. rocketsondes at low latitude stations (8°S-34°N), taking into account instrumental changes and natural variability

Details Stratospheric and mesospheric cooling trend estimates from u.s. rocketsondes at low latitude stations (8°S-34°N), taking into account instrumental changes and natural variability Stratospheric and mesospheric cooling trend estimates from u.s. rocketsondes at low latitude stations (8°S-34°N), taking into account instrumental changes and natural variability

Apr 1999

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1999jastp..61..447k&link_type=abstract

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 61, Issue 6, p. 447-459.

Physics

35

Scientific paper

Long-term changes of temperature and wind data have been investigated using U.S. rocketsondes at six selected sites at northern tropical and subtropical locations (from 8°S to 34°N). The analysis method used here is based on a multi-function regression analysis that allows for a continuous linear trend, for natural variability, and for sudden changes of the mean due to successive instrumental improvements. Results show that while sensor replacement does not seem to induce major measurement bias, successive correction procedures have produced significant mean temperature shifts, mostly above 55 km. Changes in the local time of measurement may have an impact on trend estimates because of tidal effects. This effect is probably enhanced by the direct solar radiative heating on the sensor. Selecting data according to the time of measurement has sometimes reduced the amplitude of the observed cooling. Using a detailed statistical model and error analysis, significant temperature trends are detected in the upper stratosphere with amplitudes slightly increasing with height. As the trend profiles from the selected sites are very similar in patterns and magnitudes, a mean annual temperature trend profile is composed using these six data sets. A significant cooling of 1.1+/-0.6 K per decade is estimated for 25 km height, increasing with height up to 1.7+/-0.7 K per decade in the altitude range of 35 to 50 km, and to 3.3+/-0.9 K per decade near 60 km. Previous published simulations of stratospheric changes induced by greenhouse gas increases and stratospheric ozone depletion, using numerical models, predict smaller cooling than that estimated here by a factor of around two. A similar analysis for zonal wind data reveals no significant changes larger than 5 m . s-1 per decade.

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