Statistical trends in cometary magnitude data

Computer Science – Numerical Analysis

Scientific paper

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Astronomical Models, Brightness Distribution, Comets, Distance, Perihelions, Statistical Analysis, Trend Analysis, Maximum Likelihood Estimates, Mean Square Values, Numerical Analysis

Scientific paper

The brightness distributions of long-period comets with P greater than 200 years, and those short-period comets with P less than 15 years (Jupiter family of comets) were modeled by Pareto power-law distributions. The models were fitted using maximum likelihood methods and analyzed by a new trend analysis approach. The long-period comets were divided into a number of physical parameter ranges, notably by perihelion, inverse semi-major axis and discovery date, and examined for appropriate physical trends. Similarly, the short-period comets were examined for trends and compared with the long-period comets. Overwhelming evidence was found that the brightness indices increase with discovery date for the long-period comets. There was no statistical evidence that the brightness distribution of the long-period comets significantly altered as the 1/a values decreased. No trends were apparent in the brightness of long-period comets in terms of their perihelion distance for perihelia less than 2.5 a.u.

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