Physics – Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Scientific paper
2005-09-03
Physics
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Scientific paper
We describe results from the third stage of a project to build a statistical model for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional mean track. In the second stage we modelled the unconditional variance of fluctuations around the mean. Now we address the question of how to model the autocorrelations in the standardised fluctuations. We perform a thorough diagnostic analysis of these fluctuations, and fit a type of AR(1) model. We then assess the goodness of fit of this model in a number of ways, including an out-of-sample comparison with a simpler model, an in-sample residual analysis, and a comparison of simulated tracks from the model with the observed tracks. Broadly speaking, the model captures the behaviour of observed hurricane tracks. In detail, however, there are a number of systematic errors.
Hall Tim
Jewson Stephen
No associations
LandOfFree
Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: modelling the autocorrelation in track shape does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.
If you have personal experience with Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: modelling the autocorrelation in track shape, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: modelling the autocorrelation in track shape will most certainly appreciate the feedback.
Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-382847