Statistical considerations on safety analysis

Details Statistical considerations on safety analysis Statistical considerations on safety analysis

2005-11-16

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0511140v1

Physics

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability

20 pages, 4 figures, International Meeting on Updates in Best Estimate Methods, November 14-18, 2004 Washington, D.C

Scientific paper

Alerting experience with a well-acknowledged safety analysis code initiated the authors to pay attention to safety issues of complex systems. Their first concern was the statistical characteristics of such a code. We point out a remarkable weakness of the so called 0.95/0.95 methodology: when repeating the search for the tolerance limit, we get a higher value with non-negligible probability. We propose the sign test as an alternative method. We point out the correct form of Wilks' formula when the number of parameters subjected to limitation is two or more.

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