Some ``missing'' elements of constraint in substorm initiation modeling

Physics

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Scientific paper

An auroral breakup is the first indicator of substorm expansion onset. It is thus crucial to use auroral observations prior to breakups to time various substorm phenomena in the magnetosphere. This paper addresses the relevance of differentiating the necessary and sufficient conditions that lead to the sudden initiation of an auroral substorm, and points out that any substorm model must include an auroral component that is repeatedly observable for every isolated substorm. It is important to realize that an auroral breakup has a definite origin, i.e., it emanates from a preexisting auroral arc. This arc has shifted equatorward slowly during the growth phase of the substorm. The strong statistical dependence of latitude of substorm initiation, as well as the probability of substorm occurrence, on the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) seems to be missing from the current modeling of substorm initiation. It is contended that because a certain region of the magnetosphere, determined by IMF conditions, becomes unstable and susceptible to substorm expansions, it is not very meaningful to attempt to identify, regardless of the IMF time history, a particular location in the magnetotail where the chain of substorm initiation processes begins.

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