Solar activity phase diagram and forecast of the coming 23rd cycle.

Details Solar activity phase diagram and forecast of the coming 23rd cycle. Solar activity phase diagram and forecast of the coming 23rd cycle.

Oct 1998

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1998biopk..43..838p&link_type=abstract

Biophys. (Russia), Vol. 43, No. 5, p. 838 - 842

Physics

Solar Activity Cycles: Planetary System

Scientific paper

The phase diagram method is used for investigation of relations between planetary dynamics and solar activity variations. It was found that the calculated moments of solar activity maxima/minima are disposed regularly in the coordinates of the difference of heliocentric longitudes of Uranus-Neptune versus the difference of heliocentric longitudes of Saturn-Neptune. There are separate zones containing maxima (minima) of only the northern (or southern) polarity of solar mean magnetic field. There is also a region where only maxima of small amplitudes are concentrated (Rz < 100). The regularities obtained are used for prognosis of the 23rd cycle. The minimum of activity must be observed in 1999±2. The maximum is forecast in 2006±2. The amplitude Rz can be as small as 60±20. Probably there will be no change of the polarity of the mean solar magnetic field.

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