Solar Activity Forecasting for use in Orbit Prediction

Details Solar Activity Forecasting for use in Orbit Prediction Solar Activity Forecasting for use in Orbit Prediction

Jun 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001flme.symp....1s&link_type=abstract

2001 Flight Mechanics Symposium, p. 1

Physics

Dynamo Theory, Exosphere, Forecasting, Solar Activity Effects, Solar Cycles, Magnetic Effects, Solar Magnetic Field, Low Earth Orbits

Scientific paper

Orbital prediction for satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) or low planetary orbit depends strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in orbital prediction, as the solar UV and EUV inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth and planets, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Geomagnetic effects also relate to solar activity. Because of the complex and ephemeral nature of solar activity, with different cycles varying in strength by more than 100%, many different forecasting techniques have been utilized. The methods range from purely numerical techniques (essentially curve fitting) to numerous oddball schemes, as well as a small subset, called 'Precursor techniques.' The situation can be puzzling, owing to the numerous methodologies involved, somewhat akin to the numerous ether theories near the turn of the last century. Nevertheless, the Precursor techniques alone have a physical basis, namely dynamo theory, which provides a physical explanation for why this subset seems to work. I discuss this solar cycle's predictions, as well as the Sun's observed activity. I also discuss the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, interior dynamo magnetic fields. As a result, one may then update solar activity predictions continuously, by monitoring the solar magnetic fields as they change throughout the solar cycle. This paper ends by providing a glimpse into what the next solar cycle (#24) portends.

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