Soccer matches as experiments: how often does the 'best' team win?

Details Soccer matches as experiments: how often does the 'best' team win? Soccer matches as experiments: how often does the 'best' team win?

2009-09-24

arxiv.org/abs/0909.4555v1

Journal of Applied Statistics Vol. 36, No. 10, October 2009, 1087-1095

Physics

Physics and Society

Contact the corresponding author in case of difficulty in accessing the published paper

Scientific paper

10.1080/02664760802715922

Models in which the number of goals scored by a team in a soccer match follow a Poisson distribution, or a closely related one, have been widely discussed. We here consider a soccer match as an experiment to assess which of two teams is superior and examine the probability that the outcome of the experiment (match) truly represents the relative abilities of the two teams. Given a final score, it is possible by using a Bayesian approach to quantify the probability that it was or was not the case that 'the best team won'. For typical scores, the probability of a misleading result is significant. Modifying the rules of the game to increase the typical number of goals scored would improve the situation, but a level of confidence that would normally be regarded as satisfactory could not be obtained unless the character of the game was radically changed.

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