Soccer: is scoring goals a predictable Poissonian process?

Details Soccer: is scoring goals a predictable Poissonian process? Soccer: is scoring goals a predictable Poissonian process?

2010-02-03

arxiv.org/abs/1002.0797v2

Europhys. Lett. 89 (2010) 38007

Physics

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability

Scientific paper

10.1209/0295-5075/89/38007

The non-scientific event of a soccer match is analysed on a strictly scientific level. The analysis is based on the recently introduced concept of a team fitness (Eur. Phys. J. B 67, 445, 2009) and requires the use of finite-size scaling. A uniquely defined function is derived which quantitatively predicts the expected average outcome of a soccer match in terms of the fitness of both teams. It is checked whether temporary fitness fluctuations of a team hamper the predictability of a soccer match. To a very good approximation scoring goals during a match can be characterized as independent Poissonian processes with pre-determined expectation values. Minor correlations give rise to an increase of the number of draws. The non-Poissonian overall goal distribution is just a consequence of the fitness distribution among different teams. The limits of predictability of soccer matches are quantified. Our model-free classification of the underlying ingredients determining the outcome of soccer matches can be generalized to different types of sports events.

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