Smoothing of climate time series revisited

Details Smoothing of climate time series revisited Smoothing of climate time series revisited

Aug 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008georl..3516708m&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, Issue 16, CiteID L16708

Physics

Geophysics

2

Mathematical Geophysics: Time Series Analysis (1872, 4277, 4475), Global Change: Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Global Change: Global Climate Models (3337, 4928), Global Change: Instruments And Techniques, Mathematical Geophysics: Fourier Analysis (3255)

Scientific paper

We present an easily implemented method for smoothing climate time series, generalizing upon an approach previously described by Mann (2004). The method adaptively weights the three lowest order time series boundary constraints to optimize the fit with the raw time series. We apply the method to the instrumental global mean temperature series from 1850-2007 and to various surrogate global mean temperature series from 1850-2100 derived from the CMIP3 multimodel intercomparison project. These applications demonstrate that the adaptive method systematically out-performs certain widely used default smoothing methods, and is more likely to yield accurate assessments of long-term warming trends.

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