Physics
Scientific paper
Jun 2003
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003jgra..108.1262m&link_type=abstract
Journal of Geophysical Research Space Physics, Volume 108, Issue A6, pp. SSH 9-1, CiteID 1262, DOI 10.1029/2003JA009827
Physics
5
Interplanetary Physics: Interplanetary Shocks, Interplanetary Physics: Solar Wind Plasma, Interplanetary Physics: Instruments And Techniques, Interplanetary Physics: Corotating Streams, Interplanetary Physics: Discontinuities
Scientific paper
Forecasts of 96 shocks in the solar wind at the L1 point made by the HAF kinematic solar wind model made between 5 February and 31 December 2001 are compared with algorithmically determined shocks from real-time data from the SWEPAM and MAG instruments aboard the ACE spacecraft. Traditional measures of forecast skill used by the meteorological community are applied to these forecasts and observations and indicate modest skill in the HAF model. Details of forecast skill are determined using the Briggs-Ruppert skill score which incorporates the costs of forecast error. This new metric is shown by the present example to be a potentially valuable tool to the customer of space weather forecasts in that it focuses on the actual application of the forecasts and identifies economic regimes where a given forecast is potentially valuable.
Briggs William M.
Mozer J. B.
No associations
LandOfFree
Skill in real-time solar wind shock forecasts does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.
If you have personal experience with Skill in real-time solar wind shock forecasts, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Skill in real-time solar wind shock forecasts will most certainly appreciate the feedback.
Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-1867302