Physics
Scientific paper
Aug 1989
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1989jspro..26..240a&link_type=abstract
Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets (ISSN 0022-4650), vol. 26, July-Aug. 1989, p. 240-244.
Physics
Economic Analysis, Heavy Lift Launch Vehicles, Size (Dimensions), Space Commercialization, Space Transportation, Spacecraft Launching, Cost Effectiveness, Marketing, Operating Costs
Scientific paper
Launch vehicles for heavy payloads have been studied since 1951. Space market projections for the decades to come make it likely that space freighters are required to serve these markets soon after the turn of this century. Fully reusable, ballistic multistage concepts using available technology are shown to provide the least cost per kg in low earth orbits (LEO). Markets requiring at least 10 launches annually will sufficiently amortize the development costs of space freighters. Market size, more so than vehicle size, is shown to determine the cost-effectiveness of the launch vehicle. A payload capability of about 100 tons to geostationary and lunar orbits is shown to be desirable from a market-demand vs launch frequency viewpoint. Total specific transportation costs in the order of $300/kg to LEO can be achieved at modest market projections, but it is unlikely that values below $50 (1985)/kg can be realized during the first half of the 21st century.
Arend Harald
Koelle Hermann H.
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