Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty

Details Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty

2004-02-05

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0402027v1

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Scientific paper

The ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts are generated by perturbing the initial conditions of the forecast using a subset of the singular vectors of the linearised propagator. Previous results show that when creating probabilistic forecasts from this ensemble better forecasts are obtained if the mean of the spread and the variability of the spread are calibrated separately. We show results from a simple linear model that suggest that this may be a generic property for all singular vector based ensemble forecasting systems based on only a subset of the full set of singular vectors.

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