Simulating Ionospheric Variability in the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle-23 using SAMI3

Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics

Scientific paper

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[2427] Ionosphere / Ionosphere/Atmosphere Interactions, [2447] Ionosphere / Modeling And Forecasting, [7536] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Solar Activity Cycle

Scientific paper

The Naval Research Laboratory is conducting an interdisciplinary physics-based space weather model development and validation program called the Integrated Sun-Earth System for the Operational Environment (ISES-OE). The goal of ISES-OE is to improve our quantitative understanding of the space environment, which can disrupt or degrade operational communications and navigation systems, and ultimately to advance our ability to forecast space weather on multiple time scale, from hours to the 11-year solar cycle. We have performed simulations with SAMI3, NRL's physics-based model of the ionosphere, for the solar and geomagnetic conditions that existed over the descending phase of solar cycle-23 from 2002 through 2008. The simulations are driven with a solar irradiance model based on TIMED/SEE measurements and with daily Ap and F10.7 indices. Thermospheric conditions are specified with empirical models of the neutral wind (HWM07) and neutral composition and temperature (NRLMSISE-00). We compare runs performed with two different versions of the solar irradiance model. Additionally, we show results for a simulation in which NRLMSISE-00 has been tuned to global average mass density derived from orbit data. We compare SAMI3 with various measurements, including global TEC maps, ionosonde-derived NmF2 and hmf2, and GUVI measurements of exospheric temperature. We quantify contributions to global electron content from sources including solar irradiance, geomagnetic conditions, and semi-annual and annual oscillations (SAO and AO) of thermospheric composition, mass density and temperature.

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