Significance Tests in Climate Science

Details Significance Tests in Climate Science Significance Tests in Climate Science

2010-03-15

arxiv.org/abs/1003.2934v1

Journal of Climate, vol. 23, 5927-5932 (2010)

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

9 pages

Scientific paper

10.1175/2010jcli3746.1

A large fraction of papers in the climate literature includes erroneous uses of significance tests. A Bayesian analysis is presented to highlight the meaning of significance tests and why typical misuse occurs. It is concluded that a significance test very rarely provides useful quantitative information. The significance statistic is not a quantitative measure of how confident we can be of the 'reality' of a given result.

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