Seismic strain release in the Mexican subduction thrust

Details Seismic strain release in the Mexican subduction thrust Seismic strain release in the Mexican subduction thrust

Dec 1989

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1989pepi...58..307a&link_type=abstract

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, Volume 58, Issue 4, p. 307-322.

Physics

14

Scientific paper

In this paper the seismic strain release in the Mexican subduction zone is discussed. The paper is based on a revised catalog of large earthquakes in Mexico. New in this catalog are estimates of the seismic moment for many of the larger pre-1962 earthquakes of this century, based on instrumental recordings from Uppsala, Sweden. A regression between moment and magnitude is established and used to estimate moments for the remaining events of this and the previous century. The envelopes of the cumulative seismic moment curves can thus be developed, consistent with the nineteenth century seismicity. These indicate that the Guerrero region is currently the most likely, within the Mexican subduction zone, to experience one great event, or several large events, with a moment deficit approaching 20 × 1027 dyn cm. This is comparable with the moment released between 1899 and 1912 in the region. In Guerrero, and also perhaps in Michoacan, the seismic strain release is consistent with plate tectonic expectations for a seismogenic zone 50 km in width. In Oaxaca, either the seismogenic zone is much narrower and there is considerable aseismic slip, or events to rupture the downdip extremes of the subduction zone have not occurred so far this century. This last alternative arises because in Guerrero the 1907 and 1957 earthquakes have relatively strong 40 s surface waves recorded at Uppsala, compared with all the other events. Such events, which we infer are deeper, present new problems for seismic hazard estimation in Mexico since they are not represented in the available strong motion records.

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