Seismic potential map of Greece calculated for the years 2005 and 2010. Its correlation to the large (Ms>=6.0R) seismic events of the 2000 - 2009 period

Details Seismic potential map of Greece calculated for the years 2005 and 2010. Its correlation to the large (Ms>=6.0R) seismic events of the 2000 - 2009 period Seismic potential map of Greece calculated for the years 2005 and 2010. Its correlation to the large (Ms>=6.0R) seismic events of the 2000 - 2009 period

2010-01-10

arxiv.org/abs/1001.1491v1

Physics

Geophysics

11 pages, 17 figures, URL: http://www.earthquakeprediction.gr

Scientific paper

The seismic potential maps for Greece, particularly for the years 2005 and 2010 (end of 2009), have been calculated following the methodology of the "lithospheric seismic energy flow model". The compiled, for the year 2005, map is compared to the observed large seismicity of 2005 - 2010 period. Furthermore, a comparison is made of the seismic charge status regarding the year 2005 to the one of 2000. It is revealed that there exists an increase of the seismic potential which results into triggering, in the next five years period (2005 - 2010), almost double the number of large EQs, compared to the ones observed during 2000 - 2005 period of time. Finally, estimation is made about the seismic accelerating deformation status of the entire Greek territory. It is shown that, since 2004, accelerated deformation monotonically increases and it is speculated that some large seismic events is possible to occur within the next 1 - 3 years. The average "virtual" magnitude of these seismic events, considering the entire Greek territory as a single unit seismogenic area, has been calculated as Ms = 8.18R. In practice, these events will be decomposed into a number of smaller in magnitude, but still large too, seismic events located at normally different seismogenic areas.

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