Secular Changes to the ENSO-U.S. Hurricane Relationship

Details Secular Changes to the ENSO-U.S. Hurricane Relationship Secular Changes to the ENSO-U.S. Hurricane Relationship

Nov 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001georl..28.4123e&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 28, Issue 21, p. 4123-4126

Physics

27

Global Change: Climate Dynamics, Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology, Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Tropical Meteorology, Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: General Or Miscellaneous

Scientific paper

Analysis of the statistical relationship between annual U.S. hurricane activity and the El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) is performed. The legitimacy of considering annual U.S. hurricane counts as a Poisson process is checked. Then, Poisson regression is used to model the ENSO-U.S. hurricane connection. A bivariate regression model verifies a significant negative correspondence between tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) and U.S. hurricane activity. When equatorial SSTs are cold, U.S. hurricanes are more likely. Secular changes to the ENSO-U.S. hurricane relationship are examined using moving regressions. A nonlinear downward trend in the relationship's strength is evident. Variations in sea-level pressures over the extra-tropical North Atlantic Ocean during months immediately prior to the hurricane season provide an explanation for a portion of this secular variability. Atmospheric synoptic conditions associated with the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) result in hurricanes tracking parallel to southern latitudes en route to the United States.

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