Physics
Scientific paper
Apr 2007
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007georl..3408304b&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 34, Issue 8, CiteID L08304
Physics
7
Seismology: Seismicity And Tectonics (1207, 1217, 1240, 1242), Tectonophysics: Continental Contractional Orogenic Belts And Inversion Tectonics, Tectonophysics: Stresses: Crust And Lithosphere
Scientific paper
For the period 1995-2000, the Nepal seismic network recorded 37 +/- 8% fewer earthquakes in the summer than in the winter; for local magnitudes ML > 2 to ML > 4 the percentage increases from 31% to 63% respectively. We show the probability of observing this by chance is less than 1%. We find that most surface loading phenomena are either too small, or have the wrong polarity to enhance winter seismicity. We consider enhanced Coulomb failure caused by a pore-pressure increase at seismogenic depths as a possible mechanism. For this to enhance winter seismicity, however, we find that fluid diffusion following surface hydraulic loading would need to be associated with a six-month phase lag, which we consider to be possible, though unlikely. We favor instead the suppression of summer seismicity caused by stress-loading accompanying monsoon rains in the Ganges and northern India, a mechanism that is discussed in a companion article.
Avouac Jean-Philippe
Bollinger Laurent
Gautam Umesh
Perrier Frédéric
Sapkota Som
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