Scaling in Non-stationary Time Series II: Teen Birth Phenomenon

Details Scaling in Non-stationary Time Series II: Teen Birth Phenomenon Scaling in Non-stationary Time Series II: Teen Birth Phenomenon

2003-01-23

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0301058v1

Physics

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability

23 pages, 13 figures

Scientific paper

10.1016/j.physa.2003.12.033

This paper is devoted to the problem of statistical mechanics raised by the analysis of an issue of sociological interest: the teen birth phenomenon. It is expected that these data are characterized by correlated fluctuations, reflecting the cooperative properties of the process. However, the assessment of the anomalous scaling generated by these correlations is made difficult, and ambiguous as well, by the non-stationary nature of the data that show a clear dependence on seasonal periodicity (periodic component) and an average changing slowly in time (slow component), as well. We use the detrending techniques described in the companion paper \cite{paper1}, to safely remove all the biases and to derive the genuine scaling of the teen birth phenomenon.

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