Reproducing earth's kernel - Uncertainty of the shape of the core-mantle boundary from PKP and PcP travel times

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Boundaries, Earth Core, Earth Mantle, Kernel Functions, Seismic Waves, Seismology, Structural Properties (Geology), Least Squares Method, Mathematical Models, Propagation Velocity, Spherical Harmonics

Scientific paper

We find lower bounds on the uncertainty of the core-mantle boundary (CMB) shape. We compute confidence intervals and simultaneous confidence envelopes for the CMB with a new technique based on reproducing kernels. Simultaneous confidence envelopes have a specified probability of containing the entire CMB, rather than just one point on the CMB, and thus allow inferences about the CMB shape. Suppose the standard deviation of travel time errors is 0.25 s, and the the CMB has a degree 4 spherical harmonic expansion. Then the width of a 95 percent confidence envelope around the least squares estimate of the CMB using 776,958 PKP phases and 84,947 PcP phases ranges from 0.32 km under Europe and Tonga to a maximum of 1.06 km under the mid-Pacific, with a median width of 0.58 km. If the CMB has structure up to degree 20, the envelope width ranges from 8.14 km to 245.0 km. We construct a degree 20 CMB model extending almost 93 km into the lower mantle beneath the mid-Pacific that changes travel times by only 0.1 s rms.

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