Regression modeling method of space weather prediction

Details Regression modeling method of space weather prediction Regression modeling method of space weather prediction

2009-06-17

arxiv.org/abs/0906.3271v2

2009Ap&SS.323..169P

Physics

Space Physics

13 pages, 19 figures, 2 tables

Scientific paper

10.1007/s10509-009-0060-4

A regression modeling method of space weather prediction is proposed. It allows forecasting Dst index up to 6 hours ahead with about 90% correlation. It can also be used for constructing phenomenological models of interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere. With its help two new geoeffective parameters were found: latitudinal and longitudinal flow angles of the solar wind. It was shown that Dst index remembers its previous values for 2000 hours.

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