Physics
Scientific paper
Oct 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008georl..3520503s&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, Issue 20, CiteID L20503
Physics
5
Cryosphere: Sea Ice (4540), Geographic Location: Arctic Region (0718, 4207), Oceanography: General: Arctic And Antarctic Oceanography (9310, 9315), Oceanography: Physical: Air/Sea Interactions (0312, 3339), Atmospheric Processes: Radiative Processes
Scientific paper
The present and future state of the Arctic sea ice cover is explored using new observations and a coupled one dimensional air-sea-ice model. Updated satellite observations of Fram Strait ice-area export show an increase over the last four years, with ~37% increase in winter 07-08. Atmospheric poleward energy flux declined since 1990, but advection of oceanic heat has recently increased. Simulations show that the ice area export is a stronger driver of thinning than the estimated ocean heat fluxes of 40 TW. Increased ocean heat transport will raise primarily Atlantic layer temperature. The `present 2007' state of the Arctic ice could be a stable state given the recent high ice area export, but if ocean heat advection and ice export decrease, the ice cover will recover. A 2*CO2 scenario with export and oceanic heat flux remaining strong, forecasts a summer Arctic open ocean area of 95% around 2050.
Kloster Kjell
Smedsrud Lars H.
Sorteberg Asgeir
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