Physics
Scientific paper
Jan 2006
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006georl..3301706v&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 1, CiteID L01706
Physics
20
Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513), Oceanography: Physical: Air/Sea Interactions (0312, 3339), Oceanography: Physical: Enso (4922), Geographic Location: Pacific Ocean
Scientific paper
We explore the extent to which stochastic atmospheric variability was fundamental to development of extreme sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) during the 1997-8 El Niño. The observed western equatorial Pacific westerly zonal stress anomalies (τax), which appeared between Nov. 1996 and May 1997 as a series of episodic bursts, were largely reproducible by an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ensemble forced with observed SST. Retrospective forecasts using a hybrid coupled model (HCM) indicate that coupling only the part of τax linearly related to large-scale tropical Pacific SSTA is insufficient to capture the observed 1997 warming; but, accounting in the HCM for all the τax that was connected to SST, recovers most of the strong SSTA warming. The AGCM-estimated range of stochastic τax forcing induces substantial dispersion in the forecasts, but does not obscure the large-scale warming in most HCM ensemble members.
Rosati Anthony
Vecchi Gabriel A.
Wittenberg Andrew T.
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