Physics
Scientific paper
Nov 1988
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1988p%26ss...36.1133a&link_type=abstract
Planetary and Space Science (ISSN 0032-0633), vol. 36, Nov. 1988, p. 1133-1147.
Physics
4
Magnetic Dipoles, Magnetic Disturbances, Solar Terrestrial Interactions, Solar Wind Velocity, Sunspot Cycle, Twenty-Seven Day Variation, Coronal Holes, Interplanetary Magnetic Fields, Solar Diameter, Solar Interior
Scientific paper
It is shown that forecasting of the recurrent geomagnetic activity is reduced to predicting the solar wind speed V and the magnitude B of the IMF for a 27-day period. It is shown further that the prediction of V and B is reduced to inferring the geometry of the neutral line on the source surface which is an imaginary spherical surface of radius 2.5 solar radii. For this purpose, it is noted that Saito et al. (1988) recently found that the neutral line on the source surface can be reproduced fairly accurately by a dipole at the center of the sun and a few dipoles on the photosphere. This finding provides us with an opportunity to predict the geometry of the neutral line on the source surface by extrapolating time variations of the magnitude and orientation of the dipoles. It is shown that time variations of the dipoles are fairly systematic, making the extrapolation possible.
Akasofu Syuh-Ichi
Oki Taikan
Olmsted Coert
Saito Takesi
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