Pseudo-nonstationarity in the scaling exponents of finite interval time series

Details Pseudo-nonstationarity in the scaling exponents of finite interval time series Pseudo-nonstationarity in the scaling exponents of finite interval time series

2008-08-14

arxiv.org/abs/0808.2036v2

Phys. Rev. E 79, 036109 (2009)

Physics

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability

12 pages, 5 figures, accepted Physical Review E

Scientific paper

10.1103/PhysRevE.79.036109

The accurate estimation of scaling exponents is central in the observational study of scale-invariant phenomena. Natural systems unavoidably provide observations over restricted intervals; consequently a stationary stochastic process (time series) can yield anomalous time variation in the scaling exponents, suggestive of non-stationarity. The variance in the estimates of scaling exponents computed from an interval of N observations is known for finite variance processes to vary as ~1/N as N goes to infinity for certain statistical estimators; however, the convergence to this behaviour will depend on the details of the process, and may be slow. We study the variation in the scaling of second order moments of the time series increments with N, for a variety of synthetic and `real world' time series; and find that in particular for heavy tailed processes, for realizable N, one is far from this 1/N limiting behaviour. We propose a semi-empirical estimate for the minimum N needed to make a meaningful estimate of the scaling exponents for model stochastic processes and compare these with some `real world' time series.

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