Production of Relativistic Electrons Following Storms and Substorms: A Multiple Regression Analysis

Physics

Scientific paper

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[2752] Magnetospheric Physics / Mhd Waves And Instabilities, [2774] Magnetospheric Physics / Radiation Belts, [2788] Magnetospheric Physics / Magnetic Storms And Substorms

Scientific paper

A number of parameters of the solar wind and magnetosphere are correlated with the high relativistic electron flux (> 2 MeV) that may occur after storms and substorms. These include the level of relativistic and seed electrons at storm onset, as well as solar wind velocity and number density, IMF Bz, AE and Kp indices, and ULF power at various stages of the storm. However, as all these parameters may be correlated with each other, simple correlation analysis cannot distinguish which processes might be drivers of the rise in relativistic electron flux and which are only correlated with the more relevant processes. Multiple regression analysis can answer whether particular variables are still correlated with the increased flux while other factors are controlled. Using this method, we find that only seed electron and relativistic electron flux at onset, ULF and Kp in the main phase of the storm, and AE, Kp, and solar wind velocity in the period after the storm are correlated with relativistic electron flux in the period after the storm. The relative level of influence of various factors varies between that found by simple correlation and that found by multiple regression. Contrary to the results of the simple correlations, the level of ULF waves in the period after the storm shows little relation with relativistic electron flux when other factors are controlled in a multiple regression.

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