Probability of a given-magnitude earthquake induced by a fluid injection

Details Probability of a given-magnitude earthquake induced by a fluid injection Probability of a given-magnitude earthquake induced by a fluid injection

Nov 2007

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007georl..3422314s&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 34, Issue 22, CiteID L22314

Physics

6

Seismology: Earthquake Interaction, Forecasting, And Prediction (1217, 1242), Seismology: Theory, Seismology: Seismicity And Tectonics (1207, 1217, 1240, 1242), Tectonophysics: Stresses: Crust And Lithosphere

Scientific paper

Fluid injections in geothermic and hydrocarbon reservoirs induce small earthquakes (-3 < M < 2). Occasionally, however, earthquakes with larger magnitudes (M ~ 4) occur. We investigate magnitude distributions and show that for a constant injection pressure the probability to induce an earthquake with a magnitude larger than a given value increases with injection time corresponding to a bi-logarithmical law with a proportionality coefficient close to one. We find that the process of pressure diffusion in a poroelastic medium with randomly distributed sub-critical cracks obeying a Gutenberg-Richter relation well explains our observations. The magnitude distribution is mainly inherited from the statistics of pre-existing fracture systems. The number of earthquakes greater than a given magnitude also increases with the strength of the injection source and the tectonic activity of the injection site. Our formulation provides a way to estimate expected magnitudes of induced earthquakes. It can be used to avoid significant earthquakes by correspondingly planning fluid injections.

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