Probabilistic modeling of eruptive activity at Etna volcano using InSAR surface displacements and ATSR thermal radiance

Details Probabilistic modeling of eruptive activity at Etna volcano using InSAR surface displacements and ATSR thermal radiance Probabilistic modeling of eruptive activity at Etna volcano using InSAR surface displacements and ATSR thermal radiance

Sep 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006georl..3318312p&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 18, CiteID L18312

Physics

Geophysics

Mathematical Geophysics: Probabilistic Forecasting (3238), Volcanology: Volcano Monitoring (7280), Volcanology: Remote Sensing Of Volcanoes, Volcanology: Instruments And Techniques

Scientific paper

Satellite monitoring offers a powerful means to regularly characterize the mechanical and thermal states of active volcanoes. Satellite-measured surface inflation and radiant heat flux reflect the pressurization and discharge, respectively, of a magmatic system, suggesting that studying these parameters together may help in better understanding future eruptive activity. We incorporate InSAR surface displacement data and ATSR thermal radiance data into a probabilistic model for activity at Etna volcano in 1996-2000, when surface deformation and thermal radiance appeared to be related in a periodic fashion. The probabilistic approach addresses both the magnitude and timing of eruptive events, based upon a simple physical model of eruptions as renewal processes. We anticipate that this approach could serve as a framework for probabilistic assessment in eruption scenarios with persistent activity and multiple monitoring datastreams.

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