Physics – Geophysics
Scientific paper
Oct 2005
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005georl..3219307i&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 32, Issue 19, CiteID L19307
Physics
Geophysics
2
Mathematical Geophysics: Probabilistic Forecasting (3238), Seismology: Earthquake Ground Motions And Engineering Seismology, Seismology: Earthquake Interaction, Forecasting, And Prediction (1217, 1242)
Scientific paper
We propose a method to estimate the probability of earthquake growth to a catastrophic one immediately after observing its initiation, for practical usage in an earthquake early warning system. This method is essentially an application of the conditional probability theory, where the magnitude-frequency relation plays a crucial role. We apply it to the Nankai trough region, Japan, where a catastrophic earthquake is expected in the near future. Based on the historical catalogue, we estimate the probability density of magnitude using a Bayesian approach. We then estimate the probability of earthquake growth to a catastrophic one. If the observed earthquake magnitude reaches 6.5, the estimated probability that the final magnitude exceeds 7.5 is 25-41%. According to previous studies, the time taken for the magnitude to increase from 6.5 to 7.5 is approximately 10-15 seconds. Our method is highly beneficial in that it enables an earlier alarm to be issued.
Horiuchi Shigeki
Imoto Masajiro
Iwata Takaki
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