Preliminary forecast for the peak of solar activity cycle 24

Details Preliminary forecast for the peak of solar activity cycle 24 Preliminary forecast for the peak of solar activity cycle 24

Sep 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009adspr..44..611a&link_type=abstract

Advances in Space Research, Volume 44, Issue 5, p. 611-614.

Physics

3

Scientific paper

Our forecast for the development phase of solar cycle 23 came out to be true; one of the very few to have attained this status out of several forecasts made. We review the details of the forecast and how it fared as the events unfolded in time. We note the present status of IMF intensity B and the planetary index Ap. We draw inferences as to what to expect for the development phase of cycle 24; several forecasts have already been made, they cover all possible scenarios, ranging from a very active to the quietest cycle in a century. Our preliminary forecast for the smoothed sunspot number at cycle 24 maximum is 101 ± 5, indicating that cycle 24 will be about 20% less active than cycle 23; the possibility that next three solar cycles may be progressively less active cannot be ruled out.

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