Predictions of the Magnitude of the Forthcoming Solar Cycles using Knowledge on the Solar Dynamo and Singular Spectrum Analysis

Details Predictions of the Magnitude of the Forthcoming Solar Cycles using Knowledge on the Solar Dynamo and Singular Spectrum Analysis Predictions of the Magnitude of the Forthcoming Solar Cycles using Knowledge on the Solar Dynamo and Singular Spectrum Analysis

Sep 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008espm...12.2.69k&link_type=abstract

"12th European Solar Physics Meeting, Freiburg, Germany, held September, 8-12, 2008. Online at http://espm.kis.uni-freiburg.de/,

Physics

1

Scientific paper

We present results of a series of studies on revealing regularities and predictions of the magnitude and duration of the solar cycle by simultaneous use of the knowledge on the Solar Dynamo mechanism and the arsenal of time series methods, such as Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA).
The key properties of the solar dynamo have been obtained by consideration of the nonlinear Parker dynamo waves in a thin shell, which enables links between amplitude and phase of the solar magnetic activity. Further, the sunspot index series have been analysed using time series methods, and predictions on the magnitude of this activity has been produced.
On the basis of these computations we expect the two forthcoming solar cycles to be a bit lower than the previous ones, namely the maximum 12-month averaged Wolf number for the cycle 24 is expected in the second half of 2011 as approximately 106, and for cycle 25 in 2021 about 99, given the uncertainties.
Furthermore, the theory of nonlinear dynamo waves establishes a link between the growth rate of the solar activity in the phase of rise of the cycle with its maximum value, supported by observational regularities. We are going to refine our predictions of this cycle 24 maximum magnitude shortly, once the stable cycle growth is indicated.

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