Prediction of the spatial evolution and effects of control measures for the unfolding Haiti cholera outbreak

Details Prediction of the spatial evolution and effects of control measures for the unfolding Haiti cholera outbreak Prediction of the spatial evolution and effects of control measures for the unfolding Haiti cholera outbreak

Mar 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011georl..3806403b&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 38, Issue 6, CiteID L06403

Physics

1

Hydrology: Eco-Hydrology, Hydrology: Human Impacts (4323), Hydrology: Modeling (1952, 4316)

Scientific paper

Here we propose spatially explicit predictions of the residual progression of the current Haiti cholera outbreak accounting for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals within different local human communities, and for the redistribution among them of Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of the disease. Spreading mechanisms include the diffusion of pathogens in the aquatic environment and their dissemination due to the movement of human carriers. The model reproduces the spatiotemporal features of the outbreak to date, thus suggesting the robustness of predicted future developments of the epidemic. We estimate that, under unchanged conditions, the number of new cases in the whole country should start to decrease in January. During this month the epidemic should mainly involve the Ouest department (Port-au-Prince) while fading out in northern regions. Our spatially explicit model allows also the analysis of the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies. To that end our results show that mass vaccinations would have a negligible impact at this stage of the epidemic. We also show that targeted sanitation strategies, providing clean drinking water supply and/or staging educational campaigns aimed at reducing exposure, may weaken the strength of the residual evolution of the infection.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Prediction of the spatial evolution and effects of control measures for the unfolding Haiti cholera outbreak does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Prediction of the spatial evolution and effects of control measures for the unfolding Haiti cholera outbreak, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Prediction of the spatial evolution and effects of control measures for the unfolding Haiti cholera outbreak will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-864293