Prediction of the Maximum Amplitude and Timing of Sunspot Cycle 24

Details Prediction of the Maximum Amplitude and Timing of Sunspot Cycle 24 Prediction of the Maximum Amplitude and Timing of Sunspot Cycle 24

Nov 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009soph..260..225b&link_type=abstract

Solar Physics, Volume 260, Issue 1, pp.225-232

Physics

5

Scientific paper

Precursor techniques, in particular those using geomagnetic indices, often are used in the prediction of the maximum amplitude for a sunspot cycle. Here, the year 2008 is taken as being the sunspot minimum year for cycle 24. Based on the average aa index value for the year of the sunspot minimum and the preceding four years, we estimate the expected annual maximum amplitude for cycle 24 to be about 92.8±19.6 (1-sigma accuracy), indicating a somewhat weaker cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21 - 23. Presuming a smoothed monthly mean sunspot number minimum in August 2008, a smoothed monthly mean sunspot number maximum is expected about October 2012±4 months (1-sigma accuracy).

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