Physics
Scientific paper
Feb 1994
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1994soph..149..405l&link_type=abstract
Solar Physics, vol. 149, no. 2, p. 405-411
Physics
19
Mathematical Models, Stellar Models, Sunspot Cycle, Correlation Coefficients, Regression Analysis, Regression Coefficients
Scientific paper
Presuming a bimodal behavior of even-odd solar cycle pairs (i.e., four modes designated as A, B, C, and D), we predict the amplitude of solar cycle 23. The bimodal properties include the dependence of maximum relative sunspot number (RM) on cycle rise time (TR) separately for odd-following and even cycles (both in two split modes), and the dependencies of odd-following on even cycles separately for cycle rise times and maximum relative sunspot numbers (each also split into two mode pairs). The procedure was first to identify the proper mode for cycle 22 (mode A), which then explicitly defines the mode for cycle 23 (mode C). The presumed mode-inherent relations were then used to estimate the rise time for cycle 23 (3.7 +/- 0.5 yr) and its maximum amplitude (195.1 +/- 17.1). A second estimate of maximum amplitude, based directly on a presumed mode-inherent relation between maximum amplitudes for even and odd cycle pairs, yields a somewhat lower value (181.3 +/- 44.3). Thus, the results of this analysis supports previous findings that cycle 23 may be one of the largest amplitude cycles ever observed.
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