Prediction of sunspot number amplitude and solar cycle length for cycles 24 and 25

Details Prediction of sunspot number amplitude and solar cycle length for cycles 24 and 25 Prediction of sunspot number amplitude and solar cycle length for cycles 24 and 25

Jul 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011jastp..73.1294r&link_type=abstract

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 73, Issue 11, p. 1294-1299.

Physics

2

Scientific paper

The prediction of solar activity strength for solar cycles 24 and 25 is made on the basis of extrapolation of sunspot number spectral components. Monthly sunspot number data during the 1850-2007 interval (solar cycles 9-23) are decomposed into several levels and searched for periodicities by iterative regression in each level. For solar cycle 24, the peak is predicted in November 2013 with a sunspot number of 113.3. The cycle is expected to be weak, with a length of 133 mo (months) or 11.1 yr. The sunspot number maximum in cycle 25 is predicted to occur in April 2023 with a sunspot number 132.1 and a solar cycle length of 118 mo or 9.8 yr. Thus, solar cycle 24 is predicted to have an intensity 23% lower than cycle 23, and cycle 25 will be 5% lower than cycle 23.

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