Prediction of solar cosmic ray flux density using measurements during the initial rise period

Physics

Scientific paper

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Energy Spectra, Proton Flux Density, Solar Cosmic Rays, Solar Protons, Interplanetary Space, Particle Diffusion, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Solar Cycles, Solar Flares

Scientific paper

The paper describes a method of predicting the dynamics of solar protons spectra based on an isotropic diffusion model, taking into account the a priori information on the nature of the proton propagation. The applicability of the method is investigated using data on 19 cosmic ray bursts in the 20th cycle of solar activity. It was shown that in approximately 70% of the cases this method can predict proton spectra for 24 hr.

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