Prediction of geomagnetic activity maximum and peak time in the 22nd solar cycle

Details Prediction of geomagnetic activity maximum and peak time in the 22nd solar cycle Prediction of geomagnetic activity maximum and peak time in the 22nd solar cycle

Oct 1990

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1990chjss..10..241g&link_type=abstract

Chinese Journal of Space Science (ISSN 0254-6124), vol. 10, no. 4, Oct. 1990, p. 241-246. In Chinese.

Physics

Magnetic Disturbances, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Solar Cycles, Solar Terrestrial Interactions, Annual Variations, Autoregressive Processes, Maximum Entropy Method, Time Series Analysis

Scientific paper

This paper discusses the character and differences of the solar cycle and geomagnetic cycle from the 13th to the 22nd solar cycles. The self-excitation threshold autoregressive time series model and autoregression method using maximum, entropy spectrum are used to simulate and predict that the peak time of the annual average value of geomagnetic aa index is in the spring of 1994 or the Autumn of 1993. The maximum in geomagnetic annual average aa index is 26-29. The 22nd geomagnetic cycle is expected to be a middle active cycle.

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