Prediction of Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 Based on Polar Magnetic Field of the Sun at Cycle Minimum

Details Prediction of Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 Based on Polar Magnetic Field of the Sun at Cycle Minimum Prediction of Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 Based on Polar Magnetic Field of the Sun at Cycle Minimum

Dec 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010sunge...5...47p&link_type=abstract

Sun and Geosphere, vol.5, no.2, p.47-51.

Physics

Scientific paper

We have quantitatively investigated the correlation between the relative sunspot number and magnitude of Sun's polar magnetic field in solar cycles 21-23 from May 1976 to November 2009. Sunspot number is in anti-correlation with average magnitude of polar field (r = -0.62, P < 0.001). Maximal positive correlation between the parameters was calculated when average magnitude of polar magnetic field was time-shifted forward on about 5.2 years (r=0.84, P<0.001). Magnitude of polar field of the Sun in the minimum of solar activity between solar cycles 23 and 24 was used as precursor to forecast maximal amplitude of sunspot number in solar cycle 24. It was found that solar cycle 24 is expected to be relatively weak cycle with maximal strength of 67ı8 in units of monthly smoothed sunspot numbers.

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