Predicting the mean Bz magnitude, revisited

Details Predicting the mean Bz magnitude, revisited Predicting the mean Bz magnitude, revisited

Aug 2003

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003jgra..108.1317k&link_type=abstract

Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 108, Issue A8, pp. SSH 3-1, CiteID 1317, DOI 10.1029/2002JA009813

Physics

Interplanetary Physics: Interplanetary Magnetic Fields, Interplanetary Physics: Solar Cycle Variations (7536), Interplanetary Physics: Instruments And Techniques, Magnetospheric Physics: Forecasting, Ionosphere: Auroral Ionosphere (2704)

Scientific paper

Keating et al. [2001] showed that a boxcar average of the Bz magnitude varied in a cyclic pattern with an approximate correlation to the solar sunspot cycle. They then proposed that the McNish-Lincoln technique, used to forecast sunspot numbers, could also be used to make a forecast of future activity of the mean Bz magnitude. Using this method, they made predictions concerning future mean Bz activity. In this paper, we wish to reexamine these predictions and compare them to actual events. There was a problem with the data in the first paper that we have corrected. We will show that even with this error the observations and premises of the first paper are correct. Applying the McNish-Lincoln technique to the current data indicates the average magnitude of Bz will decline over the next few years as the current solar cycle goes through its declining phase. These results will aid us in anticipating the average interplanetary magnetic field activity over the near-term and assist in making appropriate long-term decisions concerning systems that are vulnerable to solar storms.

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