Predicting Baseball Home Run Records Using Exponential Frequency Distributions

Details Predicting Baseball Home Run Records Using Exponential Frequency Distributions Predicting Baseball Home Run Records Using Exponential Frequency Distributions

2006-08-23

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0608228v1

Physics

Popular Physics

5 pp, LaTeX; 1 eps figure

Scientific paper

A new model, which uses the frequency of individuals' annual home run totals, is employed to predict future home run totals and records in Major League Baseball. Complete home run frequency data from 1903--2005 is analyzed, resulting in annual exponential distributions whose changes can be a used as a measure of progression in the sport and serve as a basis against which record-setting performances can be compared. We show that there is an 80% chance that Barry Bonds' current 73 home run record will be broken in the next 10 years, despite the longevity of previous records held by baseball legends Babe Ruth and Roger Marris.

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