Predictability of Tropical Cyclones Using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

Details Predictability of Tropical Cyclones Using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System Predictability of Tropical Cyclones Using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

Dec 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agufm.u24a..05b&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #U24A-05

Physics

3374 Tropical Meteorology

Scientific paper

The predictability of tropical cyclones using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) is demonstrated with 3 severe cyclones in the Indian Ocean and 1 supertyphoon from the northwest Pacific, which include: Gonu, Sidr, and Man-Yi from 2007 and Nargis from 2008. While TC genesis forecasts are assumed to have little skill beyond 48 hours, we show that these projections can provide considerable lead-time with the ECMWF ensembles on average, correctly projecting the date of genesis and location of TC formation 5.5 days in advance. In addition, the ECMWF EPS shows considerable skill in track forecasts for both timing and location of movement especially in the 7 to 10 day range for all four tropical cyclones. While TC intensity forecasts are generally underestimated - attributed to the reduced resolution in the ECMWF ensembles - these intensity projections, especially for large tropical cyclones, can provide several days of additional lead-time that is not currently provided. This extra lead-time is vitally important in countries where coastal evacuations and disaster preparations are particularly slow. The potential forecasting benefits using the ECMWF EPS for tropical cyclones is reviewed in conjunction with a separate presentation in how this information can be used to mitigate disaster risk for countries in coastal areas of the Northern Indian Ocean.

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