Predictability of atmospheric boundary-layer flows as a function of scale

Details Predictability of atmospheric boundary-layer flows as a function of scale Predictability of atmospheric boundary-layer flows as a function of scale

Nov 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002georl..29u..34b&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 29, Issue 21, pp. 34-1, CiteID 2038, DOI 10.1029/2002GL015497

Physics

Geophysics

2

Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Turbulence, Mathematical Geophysics: Nonlinear Dynamics, Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Boundary Layer Processes, Mathematical Geophysics: Chaos

Scientific paper

Predictability analysis based on the maximum Lyapunov exponent considers infinitesimal perturbations, which are associated with errors in the smallest fastest-evolving scales of motion. However, these errors become irrelevant for the predictability of larger scale motions. In this study we employ the newly developed Finite Size Lyapunov Exponent (FSLE) analysis to assess predictability of atmospheric boundary layer flows as a function of scale. We demonstrate the expected enhanced predictability at large scales and quantify the dependence of predictability on the stability of the atmospheric environment.

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