Predictability in an unpredictable artificial cultural market

Details Predictability in an unpredictable artificial cultural market Predictability in an unpredictable artificial cultural market

2009-08-10

arxiv.org/abs/0908.1320v1

Physics

Physics and Society

Scientific paper

In social, economic and cultural situations in which the decisions of individuals are influenced directly by the decisions of others, there appears to be an inherently high level of ex ante unpredictability. In cultural markets such as films, songs and books, well-informed experts routinely make predictions which turn out to be incorrect. We examine the extent to which the existence of social influence may, somewhat paradoxically, increase the extent to which winners can be identified at a very early stage in the process. Once the process of choice has begun, only a very small number of decisions may be necessary to give a reasonable prospect of being able to identify the eventual winner. We illustrate this by an analysis of the music download experiments of Salganik et.al. (2006). We derive a rule for early identification of the eventual winner. Although not perfect, it gives considerable practical success. We validate the rule by applying it to similar data not used in the process of constructing the rule.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Predictability in an unpredictable artificial cultural market does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Predictability in an unpredictable artificial cultural market, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Predictability in an unpredictable artificial cultural market will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-120559